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Feature Races |
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| Saturday - 2/4/2012 |
All of the talk is over and now it's time to put up or shut up in the 2012 Orange Park Derby. The 11th race on Saturday evening is going to be a barn burner and the winner might just be determined at the start. Loads of early speed abound in this race and with only one true closer, it could all depend on who seizes control of this race from the start. Post position could play a role too as a couple of greyhounds got where they wanted to be, and some drew some unfavorable starting boxes. So let's take a closer look at the field and try and make some sense of it in the process.
1. Pat C Hostage (Kiowa Mon Manny - Forever Nanc) is the only true closer in this race and draws a great post here with the 1 box. He should be able to get room early on, and if the breaks within reach, he could be upset minded at the finish.
2. Miss Trent (Trent Lee - Whistler's Miss) is an all out front running greyhound who started this stakes in grade C. She has the skills to make the lead, like she did in 3 of the 4 rounds, and the post to get it done. She needs to show up and come out running if she wants a chance.
3. J's Robin (Lonesome Cry - Boy Trouble) is the phenom that everyone else is scared of. She just missed 3 wins in the stakes by a neck and a head, and has enough left in the tank late to get up from off the pace. Finally inside the 5 box at 660, she might just break and leave this field in her wake.
4. Snj Black Porter (Jt's Goesaround - Ultimate Cupcake) is the Jacksonville Juvenile winner that is looking for another stakes title over a second distance. Very seldom have accomplished this here, and I don't remember anyone doing it in their first 2 tries. He was the fastest of the fast in qualifying, and if he comes to break and run tonight, she could be the one to beat.
5. Big Drama (Get Over - Rooftop Flojo) is the cagey veteran that is riding high heading in the this final. She has won back to back races on the lead, but draws the dreaded 5 box tonight. This all the time rail runner might have a hard time getter there in this race, but she might be able to overcome this with a big break. Tonight she needs to bring it early again.
6. Rc Mini Power (Deerfield Site* - Rc Power Amy) is the only greyhound to finish in the trifecta in all 4 rounds of the stakes, and even though she didn't win any of them, she was a force throughout. Here she needs to show that strong break just one more time, and she might be saving her best run for when it counts.
7. Lk's Energizing (Em's Mac Attack - Boyzmiraclemagie) is the greyhound to beat in this race, not only from the box, but to the finish line. With 3 wins in 4 rounds and 6 of her last 7, she is a force on the front end. She can be caught from behind, but you have to get to before she turns for home as she is game on the late lead. If she breaks like she can, 11 straight to the lead, she will prove unstoppable here.
8. Pat C Manuel (Kiowa Mon Manny - Pat C Cissy) is the true question mark in this race. He won two of the rounds on the lead, but without it he has been suspect in the past. Here there are several great breakers, and seeing the front might not be an option. He does like the post and won a round from this box, and let's remember that last year's winner was from the same box and the 8th position in points, so it could happen!
Here is how I see the race playing out. I expect Lk's Energizing to mimic the bunny as he has done in his last 11 starts in a row. No one has beaten her to the lead and I don't expect that trend to breakdown in this effort. Stalking her will be the other early speeders, Miss Trent, and Rc Mini Power, but the closers will be close as well. J's Robin out well will be in the mix and so will Snj Black Porter. Hostage breaking from a good post will be in the conversation as well. Manuel will not be as fast as the rest from the box and the middle post will give Drama fits as she tries to get to the rail and finds trouble. Around the turn and down the front side, Energizing will be in command of this effort. Coasting along ahead of the rest, she will continue the pace to the through the escape and down the backside. The closers will start to make their runs and J's Robin will be the biggest threat that Energizing will have to worry about. By the far turn the lead will be shrinking and as they run down the stretch it is going to get interesting. Energizing will be clinging to the lead, but Robin will be gaining with every step, as well as Black Porter, and Pat C Hostage. As they approach the wire, it will be a tight finish, and there might even be a photo involved, but I still think that Energizing holds on for the win. J's Robin runs a huge race, but comes out on the short end of the stick. Black Porter and Pat C Hostage round out the superfecta as they give there all and finish just off the leaders pace. (7-3-4-1)
Remember we are giving away $5,000 in cash on Saturday evening too! Just pick who you think is going to win, place your ticket in the number boxes, and if he does, you will have a chance to be one of 10 winners of $500 in cash. GOOD LUCK to all and see you at the Orange Park Kennel Club on Saturday evening for the finals of the 2012 Orange Park Derby.
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